A.P Heat

Edge sorting in baccarat takes place when the player can observe the back of one or more cards before making his wager (see this post for an introduction). If the player is able to sort the cards, then this knowledge allows the player to gain an edge.

In table games, little procedures can cost a lot. Getting just one additional round per hour can lead to an increase in annual revenue of 3% or more. Efforts to speed up games usually focus on the dealers themselves. These front line employees are instructed to attract players to the game, make the game fun, and to deal as fast and accurately as they can.

An AP who wants to edge sort in baccarat is like a Sumo wrestler who wants to perform ballet: just because he wants to do it does not mean it is possible. In most baccarat games, the player doesn’t touch the cards.

The methods used to protect against blackjack card counters are among the most costly managerial decisions many casinos make. Contrary to popular belief, there is not an army of card counters waiting to pounce at the first opportunity.

Lucky 8 (L8) is a baccarat side bet I first heard about on the Wizard of Vegas website in this thread. As the name implies, a Player/Banker final total of 8 is key to winning this bet.

And I am dumb to tell the crooked rose

My youth is bent by the same wintry fever. -- Dylan Thomas

In this post I am going to give the win-rate statistics against the Tie bet using computer-perfect play. In this analysis, I assume the AP is keeping track of the cards that have been played from the shoe. Before the start of each round, the AP uses a computer to give him the exact edge on the Tie bet based on the knowing the composition of the cards left in the shoe.

In this post, I wrote about exploiting advanced knowledge of the specific location of a Ten or Ace in the shoe. Among the many ways an AP can know that an Ace or Ten will be dealt is when the bottom card is exposed to a skilled cutter.

From time to time the question of card counting in baccarat comes up. Because baccarat is dealt from a shoe, it follows that the odds for the banker/player/tie bets change as cards are dealt. As more and more cards are dealt, a counter will get an ever more precise estimation of the composition of the cards that remain.

There are two common commission free variations of the basic game of baccarat. Each leaves the drawing rules unchanged. Each pays winning Player bets even money, maintaining a house edge of 1.2351% on winning Player bets (assuming an eight-deck shoe). The key feature of these variations is that each has a payout reduction for a distinguished winning Banker bet.

There is a common misunderstanding among surveillance, security, and management that blackjack card counters are among the top reasons that shifts lose money (or have a reduced hold). One floor manager said to me that: “they walk out of here with $600 to $800 each time.” The primary purpose of game protection is not to catch card counters.

I received the following question from a reader:

Up until "7 Up Baccarat" (7UB), there has not been a variant of baccarat that is substantially vulnerable to card counting. While baccarat side bets can be a lucrative opportunity, the best an AP can do card counting standard baccarat is an earning rate of about 87 cents-per-shoe with a $1000 maximum bet (see this post).

Edge sorting is a method of advantage play that uses natural irregularities in the cut on the backs of cards to be able to identify certain groups of cards. By being able to identify critical cards, APs are able to improve their betting and playing decisions. This method of advantage play is not new; APs have been using it to beat the house for at least two decades.

Few who work in table games management and even fewer APs know that blackjack shoe games offer hole-carding opportunities. How could this even be possible? Yet advanced APs know that shoe games have been one of the most reliable sources for hole-carding opportunities over the last 20 years.