A.P Heat

I have recently been obsessing over computer-perfect play against the baccarat Tie bet and Pairs bet.

Side bets that pay out when the dealer busts were a hot area of development a few years back. I was involved with two of these bets as the primary mathematician for the game developers. One of the wagers I analyzed was Dealer Bust 21 (see this post). The other bust-type wager I analyzed was "Bet the Bust" (BTB) for the company Tech Art. BTB is the subject of this post.

Heads-Up Hold'em (HUH) is a relatively new poker variant that seems to be gaining traction. Its rules are nearly identical to those of Ultimate Texas Hold'em (UTH) (see this post). I am surprised this game even exists. That said, HUH appears to be one of those rare games that has a real chance for success.

To the readers and followers of APHeat, you are no doubt wondering about this new look. About a year ago I set a retirement date of late 2017 - that's right, retirement. It's an odd word because my post-retirement schedule is already jammed full.  As part of my retirement planning, I wanted to find a great company to continue to host my blog. 

Flop Poker (FP) is a poker style game that is popular in the Southern states. First introduced in 2003, it is one of the longest surviving novelty games. FP is an example of a game that is both vulnerable to hole-carding and one that APs would not go out of their way to play.

Double Draw Poker (DDP) is a relatively new game that appears to be gaining ground in some markets, both in the US and internationally. The first time I saw DDP was at the Global Gaming Expo in 2013. After learning how DDP was played, I immediately commented to the game developer that DDP appeared to be extraordinarily vulnerable to collusion (information sharing among players).

When the patent on EZ Baccarat and its Dragon 7 side bet expired in September, 2013 (see this post), there was a bit of a land rush. Bally (Shuffle Master) was the first to get in, creating "Fortune Baccarat" with the Fortune 7 side bet.

This post is a question waiting for an answer: "State-by-State, which casino table games are approved for use?" I spent the morning scouring gaming commission websites searching for lists of approved games. I was frustrated by the difficulty in finding this information.

The following spreadsheet extends the previous loss rebate theorem Excel spreadsheet (see this post) to include the risk of ruin (ROR):

I created an Excel spread sheet that computes the optimal stopping point for a loss rebate advantage play opportunity using the Loss Rebate Theorem (LRT).