- Various mathematical systems are routinely promoted as effective ways to beat the casino.
- Math-based systems are popular with the game of roulette. Players can use several of these statistical systems under a given set of conditions, but most of them cannot be applied over the long term.
- If players implement mathematical-based systems over the long term, the roulette system fails, and the house wins because of the built-in edge.
- There is an anomaly – an outlier – which bucks the trend. It is known as the Kesselgucken roulette system. When implemented correctly, players can use this system to generate a positive return over the long term in roulette games.
The word Kesselgucken is best translated as Observational in English. This German word refers to a system that does not involve prior outcomes in roulette nor involves any mathematics. Instead, it is based purely on player predictions of the results of every spin. Hence the word Observational. The roulette player effectively observes everything that's going on in the game, including the factors that might influence where the ball will likely land. Then, by applying the laws of physics, it is possible to predict the area where the ball will land.
Be advised that this isn't a specific pocket; it's a sector on the roulette wheel. The range of possible outcomes is known as octants on the roulette wheel. Since each octant is 1/8 of the total area on the roulette wheel, it's possible to hypothesize specific numbers for each observation. None other than Ed Thorp, pioneered this novel approach to anticipating roulette outcomes. Back in the day, Thorp teamed up with the Nobel laureate Claude Shannon. Together, they developed the first wearable computer in the world. Its purpose? To anticipate where the roulette ball would land.
Thankfully, classical mechanics calculations and roulette physics can be combined with several important elements to determine where the ball is likely to land. The most important factors include the following five elements:
- The release point of the ball
- The ball's initial speed
- The effect of gravity
- The roulette wheel's initial speed
- The number of times the ball bounces before coming to rest in a pocket, i.e. the bounce coefficient
Since Edward Thorp and Claude Shannon had already formulated the software program to account for these factors, only a few observational inputs are required. For example, the duo needed to determine the initial velocity of the roulette ball after one revolution around the track. Thankfully, the powerful computing software would take care of the calculations.
However, many computational equations take place; these necessitate computer use. The system must complete all calculations before the roulette dealer calls no more bets. When MIT professors conducted these experiments, computers were permitted in casinos. Nowadays, that's a big no-no. There is no chance any such computing technology and software would allow players to gain an edge over the house.
Edward Thorp and Claude Shannon creamed it off the top with their roulette physics computer. But, ironically, we have them to thank for not being able to use computers to beat the house in casinos anymore. Today, computing devices are expressly banned at casinos the world over. Once the casino ban on computers came into effect, players had to devise innovative ways to 'attack the wheel' without help from devices.
The Kesselgucken approach came into play. Granted, the methods used with the Kesselgucken process are far from the accurate scientific methods with powerful computing devices. But, the outcomes are advantageous enough to give players a statistical edge over the house. For example, the computer-generated outcomes for determining where the roulette ball would land are based on eight quadrants on the roulette wheel divided up into a predictable range of five numbers.
With a computer-based approach, a bet of $1 on five unique numbers would yield an enormous profit of C$33 per spin with 100% accuracy. These figures increase dramatically as your bet size increases. Naturally, non-computer simulated approaches to predicting this physics-based approach are less accurate and profitable. But there is still lots of money to be made. Rather than five numbers, roulette players boost the Canadian dollar inputs to C$15, with an attendant payout of 36:1. This ensures a net profit of C$20 for each spin of the roulette wheel, with a 100% hit rate.
Roulette players can generate profits with hit rates as low as 35%. This unique roulette betting system can ensure generous returns when implemented correctly. Now, take a look at several things that players need to do for this to work:
The Release Point of the Ball
This is step #1 of the process. Every single roulette dealer has a signature style of play. These subtleties exist, despite the seemingly identical playing motions. Known as a croupier signature, there are several physical parts to look for, notably how the ball is released onto the roulette wheel. The first part of the roulette dealer's signature is the release point on the outer rim of the roulette wheel, directly onto the ball track. Roulette dealers typically release the ball from the identical position on every single spin. That's why the starting position, a.k.a. the ball's release point is so important.
The Ball's Initial Speed
The initial velocity of the roulette ball is a powerful determinant of how many rotations it will make around the wheel before eventually coming to rest. When Edward Thorp and Claude Shannon formulated their roulette physics computer, the player/observer would click a button that measured the inception/starting point of the ball. Then the player would click a button for a second time once the ball completed a revolution around the roulette track.
The computer software then calculates a landing point in one of the eight quadrants on the roulette track. It uses angular velocity calculations to do this. In the absence of computing technology, roulette players must carefully watch the croupier for several hours before playing roulette against the dealer. A stopwatch is used to time one revolution around the roulette wheel.
Then, after scores of measurements (approximately 100) have been documented, an average length for one revolution is determined. This is known as the mean time for the distance travelled. The measurements used to determine one revolution of distance is approximately 2 πr. Recall that π is about 3.1415926535. The letter R is the radius of the roulette wheel. Then we put the basic equation into play –
Velocity=2πr/time
The roulette player will discover that after 100 trial runs of the ball around the wheel, and some 100 calculations, each croupier, has a consistent velocity.
The Effect of Gravity
Once we know the release point of the ball, as well as the initial velocity, a player can quickly determine where the roulette ball will enter the region on the wheel where several baskets are situated. Note that the ball always separates from the outer roulette track at precisely the same velocity on every single spin. At this point, gravity takes over. The ball slides down the angular path until it hits one of the sprockets, separated by frets with numbered compartments/pockets.
The Roulette Wheel's Initial Speed
The precise point at which the ball enters the basket area on the roulette wheel is an important consideration. This is the ball component of the game. The other part is the actual roulette wheel. Right, while the wheel is spinning – with near-zero friction at play – it spins in the opposite direction to the movement of the roulette ball. The roulette wheel's velocity, similar to that of the roulette ball, is consistent between dealers.
Once again, we take a sample size of 100 spins to assess the roulette wheel's initial speed. This is consistent with determining the initial velocity of the roulette dealer vis-a-vis the ball speed. We then use an average of the velocity calculations to determine the initial speed of the wheel. Recall that the average is the sum of each measurement divided by the number of events (spins).
The Bounce Coefficient of The Ball
Last but certainly not least is the bounce coefficient of the ball. This indicates how many spaces the ball travels by before it stops in a pocket. This part of the roulette calculation is more of a technical art form than a hard-data calculation. There is tremendous variance involved. The bounce coefficient of the ball is heavily dependent on the roulette dealer's particular signature. Players must spend significant time observing the dealer, recording measurements, and averaging them.
In Conclusion
It is certainly possible to use physics as the casino's roulette wheel. But we now know that it's a complex undertaking. Tremendous work, effort, and observation are required by the player of individual dealers.
One of the primary mistakes that most greenhorns make with the Kesselgucken approach and its variants is the following: they incorrectly measure data. After jumping in head first, they soon realize it takes lots of hard work. After they meet with failure, they give up. Rather than adopting a laissez-faire approach to this roulette system, investing time and effort in practice roulette games is essential to get into the swing of things.
The methodology requires work – there are no two ways about it. However, players can do this at home, where they can control conditions. By fine-tuning the methodology at home, away from the bustling hubbub of the casino, it's possible to perfect the approach and practically apply it at the casino.
With the roulette physics approach, players can attack the game with gusto. Once precise calculations are implemented – through computing technology- players can anticipate where the ball will land with a great degree of accuracy. This is usually within five spaces. This gives players a tremendous edge in roulette.
By estimating without computers, accuracy suffers. That's why players need to expand the range of numbers from 5 – 15. At this point, the hit ratio is substantially less than a computer-generated prediction. We can infer several essential facts from this information. Notably, much practice is needed to become proficient in the non-computer-determined approach to beating roulette using physics.
Players need to practice with simulated games before participating in real-money play. The physics-based approach to determining where the ball lands in roulette is complex. Tremendous time, effort, and expertise is needed to make it profitable. But, with the right attitude, determination, and accurate measurements, it's possible to be lucrative.
