How to Win at Blackjack Without Counting Cards

One of the most commonly asked questions I get from gamblers is: 'Is it possible to win at blackjack without knowing how to count cards?' The answer is a definitive yes. In this guide, I will teach you how to play blackjack and win without any card counting knowledge whatsoever.

There are two methods you can use to win at blackjack without card counting:

  • Method #1 – Hole Carding requires players to identify the dealer's hole card and optimize play accordingly.
  • Method #2 – Front-Loading – by front loading, you can identify the next card to be dealt and tailor your blackjack strategy accordingly.

Believe it or not, Hole Card and Front-Loading can deliver a greater yield than traditional card counting methodology. There is a trade-off, however. It comes in the form of lots more legwork being required. Blackjack players would need to do their homework by scouting dealers and assessing the techniques they use to shuffle and deal cards and gauge the betting threshold of the casino.

Advantage players must do all of the aforementioned activities without drawing the attention of the casino dealers, managers, pit bosses, and security surveillance systems. It's a tall order, but it's possible. Before you implement any of these advanced blackjack strategies, the standard protocols of Advantage Play remain intact. That means players must have a firm grasp of Basic Blackjack Strategy. This must be coupled with flawless execution and adherence to a strict code of conduct.

In the next section, we're going to take a closer look at these blackjack strategies and provide players with a brief intro to good execution of Methods #1 and #2. First, let it be known that both of these methods are legally allowed according to the Nevada State Supreme Court, including various worldwide legal jurisdictions.

Blackjack Dealer Hole-Carding

METHOD 1: HOLE CARDING EXPLAINED

In blackjack, the dealer is initially dealt two cards. One of the cards is face down, and the other card is face up. Blackjack players decide based on the face-up card and their cards. However, Hole Carding is all about anticipating the value of the dealer's face-down card, a.k.a. Hole Card. If you know the dealer's face-down card, you automatically gain an extraordinary edge over the casino.

Suffice it to say; Hole Carding can generate windfall profits for the player. Once you perfect this technique, you really won't want to look anywhere else for your blackjack strategy. It's the ideal advantage play, and it works like a charm. Mathematicians have already calculated the advantage this type of strategy yields, and the number is approximately 13.5%. So if you flat bet $100 per hand in blackjack, you can earn a staggering $1350 per hour when you go head-to-head against the blackjack dealer.

Make no mistake about it – it's tough finding a Hole Carding game that you can exploit. Therefore, we only advise implementing this technique in casino-centric enclaves. Why? Because blackjack dealers are trained to avoid showing their hole cards to players. But here's the thing – after years of using the same technique, dealers may develop poor habits. These poor habits are easily exploitable while the casino is bustling, like during the summer season. That's when new dealers are brought in to handle large numbers of tourists.

It's only natural that some of these blackjack dealers may encounter hole-carding players from time to time. A blackjack strategy guide named Million-Dollar Blackjack by Ken Uston postulates that 0.5% of blackjack dealers can be exploited for Method #1 – Hole Carding. That's one dealer in every 200! I've spoken with many different Front Hole-Carders, who all agree with this statistic. You need to bear in mind another metric – it's the scouting time. It takes approximately 12 hours of scouting for every 60 minutes of play time.

There are dozens of casinos in Las Vegas, at least 64, providing players with plenty of opportunities to scout about in search of weak dealers. Each casino has three shifts every 24 hours. There are hundreds of dealers at every casino. That means there are plenty of opportunities to take advantage of flawed techniques. This exposé on Hole Carding would not be complete without mentioning various strategy deviations to implement when you know what the hole card is. The below chart identifies the player actions when the dealer's total hand value is known.
 

Dealers Hand  Hit Until (hard hands) Hit Until (soft hands) DD hands Pair Splitting
Hard 20 20 20 - -
Hard 19 19 19 - 9
Hard 18 18 19 - 2,3,7,8,9*
Hard 17 17 18 - 2,3,6,7,8
Hard 14,15,16 12 18 5,6,7,8,9,10,11

A2,A3,A4,A5
All Pairs except 5s
Hard 13 12 18 7,8,9,10,11

A2-A9
All Pairs except 5s
Hard 12 12 18 8,9,10,11

A2-A9
All Pairs except 5s
Hard 11 15 18 - A
Hard 10 16 19 11 A*
Hard 9 17 19 10,11 A,8,9
Hard 8 17 18 10,11 A,7,8,9
Hard 7 17 18 10,11 A,2,3,7,8
Hard 6 12 18 9,10,11 A,2,3,6,7,8,9*
Hard 5 13 18 10,11,A2-A8 A,2,3,6,7,8,9
Hard 4 14 18 10,11,A6,A7 A,7,8
A9 20 20 - -
A8 19 19 - 9
A7 18 19 - 2,3,7,8,9
A6 17 18 - A,2,3,7,8
A5 13 18 9,10,11,A6,A7 A,2,3,6,7,8,9
A4 13 18 10,11 A,2,6,7,8,9
A3 14 18 10,11 A,7,8
A2 15 18 10,11 A,7,8
AA 16 18 11 A,8
* Indicates that the play varies by number of cards have the dealer has but can be ignored for simplicity and the variation does not alter the advantage significantly

METHOD 2: FRONT LOADING EXPLAINED

There is another method that card players can use, and it doesn't require any card counting prowess. It's known as Front Loading. As an Advantage Player, Front Loading is highly lucrative and legal. This process occurs when the blackjack dealer exposes their hole card while removing the card from the deck or sliding it under the top card.

You can assume that front-loaded dealing from a handheld game of blackjack provides players with the opportunity to see almost every hand that is dealt. Therefore, this method is best utilized at blackjack dealer tables hosted by croupiers with small hands or women. Remember, these are handheld blackjack games, and the smaller hands make it difficult to grasp the cards and conceal them.

Don't worry about the optimal strategy needed to understand front loading in blackjack – it's too complicated for this article and won't help for practical purposes. Suffice it to say, if the following card doesn't bust, you would hit. If it does bust, then you stand. However, it gets more complicated if you decide to double or split hands.

FRONT LOADING  

It's worth emphasizing that you can't use Method #1 and Method #2 on every hand you participate in as an advantage player. Any advantage player who believes that is courting failure. Even the world's most renowned blackjack players routinely miss between 20% – 25% of all hands they are dealt.

Regardless, it still provides players with a decisive edge in real money play. This is particularly true when you have a good understanding of basic blackjack strategy. For example, a healthy edge can occur when you have a 50% accurate viewing of the dealer's hole card. Or, you get the same advantage when you have a 50% accurate viewing of the dealer's front-loaded card.

As you can tell, you don't need to count cards to win blackjack games. However, you can fine-tune your advantage play techniques by understanding how to implement methods #1 and #2 in blackjack. These methods have passed the litmus test as the most reliable way to beat blackjack without card counting. I trust them, and you can trust them too!



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Nicholas is a 17 year veteran of the casino gaming industry. He is former player manager with the infamous MIT Blackjack teams and is a regular attendee of the Blackjack Ball, a gathering of the world’s top professional gamblers.

He is the Managing Director of the Alea Consulting Group, a leading gaming consultant company with a focus on gaming economics and, is a frequent contributor to world class business publications like Forbes and Entrepreneur magazines’ and over 15 gaming trade publications. He is also the founder of Casino Exploits a player centric casino gaming site.