POPULAR BLACKJACK BETTING SYSTEMS

All types of blackjack betting systems are progressive betting systems. That means players must increase their bet sizes after they win (positive progression betting) or after losses (negative progression betting). These betting progressions take advantage of streaks that occur in blackjack games. Unfortunately, there is no way to predict them.

I've put together a brief description of several world-famous betting systems. Blackjack players routinely use these systems, so familiarise yourself with them. You may already know one or more of these world-famous betting systems through word-of-mouth, friends, or hucksters. Some people swear by these systems, believing they can help players beat the casinos in blackjack.

We begin with an introduction to negative blackjack betting.

THE MARTINGALE SYSTEM

This progressive blackjack betting system was conceptualized in the 1700s in France. It's a negative progression blackjack betting system because you double your bets after losses. You begin with the minimum table value, say 1 unit (in this case, C$1), and you keep doubling on every loss until your bankroll is depleted or you've reached the maximum table bet.

For example, let's assume your first bet is C$1, and you lose. The next bet will be C$2, and if you keep losing, the following negative betting progression takes place: C$4, C$8, C$16, until you win. The mathematics of the system works, provided you stay within your budget and the table's maximum limits. You always come ahead by 1 unit. We will explore the Martingale betting system in greater detail in Chapter 7.2.

THE FIBONACCI SYSTEM

The Fibonacci betting system is noticeably more challenging to implement than Martingale and D'Alembert. But it is still a negative progression system and incredibly popular. The Fibonacci system features a series of numbers, such that each number in the series is the sum of the previous two numbers.

This example will help to clarify this. If the series is: 1-1-2-3-5-8-13-21-34, then the following number in the series is 55, and the next number in the series is 89.

Why? Because each successive number is the sum of the previous two numbers. With this betting system, you don't double your bets after losses like with Martingale; you actually increase your bet size based on the sequence of numbers. This continues until you win a hand, at which point you circle back to the starting bet of one unit.

THE D’ALEMBERT SYSTEM

French mathematician Jean-Baptiste le Rond d'Alembert created this negative betting progression system in the 18th century. It has a slight variation in the way it is used. Let's say you're playing blackjack and lose a hand; you will raise your bet by 1 unit. When you win, you reduce your bet by 1 unit. Let's use an example to highlight this. You bet 1 unit and lose. Your next bet will be 1 unit + 1 unit = 2 units. If you lose again, you add another unit, 3 units. If you win, your next bet is 3 units -1 unit = 2 units. That's how this negative betting progression system works.

The 31 SYSTEM

The 31-progression betting system has the following series: 1-1-1-4-8-16. When you add the numbers up, you get 31. With this betting system, a loss results in a bet being placed on the next number in the series. If you win, then you double your previous bet. If you win again, you begin the series at one unit.

THE PARLAY SYSTEM

Parlay betting systems aim to incrementally increase your bet size when you're on a hot streak and enjoying winnings. However, after you have notched up several wins, we encourage you to withdraw some of your profits for safekeeping. The popular parlay betting system is 1-2-3-5. Try it out; it's an interesting one!

Here’s how it works:

• Begin with one unit bet. If this bet wins,
• Raise your bet to 2 units. If it wins again,
• Increase your bet to 3 units. If it wins,
• Boost your bet (the last time) to 5 units. If this bet wins,
• Take your 11 units profit (1+2+3+5) from the series and begin a new series with 1 betting unit (C$1).
• Stop and revert to C$1 bets if you lose at any point.
• Begin with one unit bet. If this bet wins,

OSCAR’S GRIND POSITIVE PROGRESSIVE

Here's a betting system that appeared on the scene decades ago. It was emphasized in Alan N. Wilson's classic book The Casino Gambler's Guide. As a top-tier mathematician, Wilson formulated a rudimentary betting system for blackjack. The progression begins with a solitary bet of C$1.

After every win, an additional C$1 bet is placed over and above the prior bet. Should you encounter a loss, your bet will be the same as the previous one. The objective is clear: win C$1 for every series of bets with the following rule: you never place a wager to generate a win greater than one unit for the series.

Of course, there is a multitude of similar positive & negative betting progression systems available to you. As a blackjack player, it's worth looking into each system and how it plays out. The above descriptions provide interesting insights into these betting systems and how they function.

Please look at Chapter 7.2 of the guide before you stumble upon a misadventure with these betting systems. The fact is they cannot work, and they don't work. They are good from a theoretical perspective but are doomed by bankroll limitations, casino rules, and maximum bet sizes.

THE MAIN REASONS SOME SYSTEMS SIMPLY FAIL

From Chapter 7.1, I indicated that the raison d'être for a progressive (positive or negative) betting system is to change your bet sizes in a predetermined fashion (example: 1-1-1-4-8-16 for the 31 system) based on whether or not the prior bet won or lost. Now, I'm going to illustrate by way of examples why these progressive betting systems fail.

PROGRESSIVE BETTING SYSTEM: MARTINGALE

It's relatively easy to use the Martingale progressive betting system. The simplest way to understand it is as follows: You double your bets when you lose. In theory, you can continue doing this until you win. You will be ahead by 1 unit (It's not C$1.00). Let's assume you are betting C$10, losing the next two successive bets, then winning one. What happens? Based on this system:

• C$10 lost on the first hand
• C$20 lost on the second hand
• C$40 won on the third hand

Therefore, we can see that we are up by one betting unit because we started at C$10 on the first hand = 1 betting unit. In this case, the objective of the progression is to win an amount equal to your starting bet.

From a cursory perspective, the Martingale system looks flawless. Logically, it's sensible because you come out ahead. If you get up and leave the blackjack table after you are ahead (win), you walk away with a profit.

Unfortunately, there are several reasons why this progressive betting system fails. For one thing, a poor run of form can prevent you from recouping your losses, and people need to know whether your bankroll or the table limits can withstand consecutive losses for X amount of time. For those naysayers who believe that the chance of a long losing streak is rare, let's consider the mathematics:

THE MATH FOR MARTINGALE

Excluding ties, there is approximately a 52% chance of losing a hand in blackjack. The probability of losing 10 consecutive hands in blackjack is relatively low at 0.145%, but it can certainly happen.

What Does This Mean:

• Out of every 692 sequences of 10 hands, you will average one sequence of 10 losing hands, except for ties.
• It'll take approximately seven hours to experience a losing streak if you play 100 resolved hands every hour.
• How about this for a shocker: there is no way to know when that string of successive losses (10) will occur in any seven hours of play, if at all.
• There is approximately a 6% chance of losing 10 in a row within the first hour; this goes up to 12% within the first two hours and 29% after only five hours of play.
• For blackjack players who use Martingale, a successive string of 10 losses is not uncommon.

What can we tell about the frequency of winning sessions concerning what system sellers and Martingale players boast about this blackjack system?

• Even though most players walk away with negligible winnings, for the most part, a losing session can bankrupt you and completely eliminate any profits you have generated.
• Over the long term, all wins and losses tend toward the casino's house edge. If you're playing blackjack with a house edge of 1%, that's what you can expect when using perfect playing strategy over millions of hands.

Put differently, the mathematical edge of the casino prevents you from having any advantage over the house. So it doesn't matter what betting system you use, including Martingale; it will ultimately fail. Otherwise, everybody would use that system, and casinos would shutter operations.

Practically speaking, there is a fatal flaw when using Martingale. This will ultimately doom your efforts at winning any money over the long term. Want to know what it is?

• If you lose over an extended period, you will quickly meet resistance from the maximum bet amount at the casino table. As if that's not bad enough, your budget will only be able to sustain a doubling of bets for a short time.

An example will bring everything into sharp focus. Let's assume you're playing C$5 blackjack games, losing eight consecutive hands in a row. These are resolved. By this point, your losses amount to C$1275 – massive! It's assumed that you have the budget and the fortitude to place these types of bets (doubling up time and again). Your next bet based on Martingale will be C$1280. That's C$280 higher than the C$1000 limit at this blackjack table. In other words, you've hit the ceiling and exceeded the limits. This is common at low-limit blackjack tables across Las Vegas, Atlantic City, and beyond.

As a progressive bettor, there is no way for you to recover your losses when this happens. You can only ante up to a higher-limit blackjack table to continue using the Martingale betting system. Always fit within your budget and your comfort level – responsible gaming.

Regarding positive betting progression systems  (as discussed in Chapter 7.1), you increase your bets after winning a hand. This is great if you are expecting a winning streak. However, for the most part, blackjack players tend to complete their playing session with a small loss, rarely experiencing a sizeable winning session. Like negative betting progressions, wins and losses tend to add up to the house edge. In blackjack, this is low.

THAT'S A WRAP!

Here are some facts to bear in mind when using betting progression systems to gain an advantage over the house in blackjack:

• Every blackjack hand's outcome is independent of the previous hand's outcome. There is no correlation – it's a skill-based game with elements of good fortune thrown in. That's why betting progressions ultimately fail.
• Blackjack, like roulette, slots, or any other casino game, has a built-in house edge. You can only overcome this in the short term, irrespective of the betting system you're using.

As a basic strategy player in blackjack, I recommend using card counting systems to gradually improve your winning odds while staying as close as possible to the house edge. You will find details of this explained in Chapter 10. There is no other way to achieve a long-term advantage when you play blackjack.

BLACKJACK FOR FUN - THE LIGHTER SIDE

I almost skipped this part of the article because the content I'm going to discuss won't give you a long-term advantage in the game. Of course, I am ever the realist, and I understand that certain people play blackjack only for “fun”  That's okay, too – even if the long-term prognosis results in your losing money.

If you are one of these types of blackjack players – those who play for fun – I hope that I can at least convince you to try one of the basic card counting systems discussed in Chapter 10.3. Regardless, if you intend to play for fun and have no interest in flat betting on every hand (betting the same amount), I recommend Oscar’s Grind positive betting progressions.  This is showcased in Chapter 7.1.

Expect regular winnings on the proviso that you bear this in mind:

• At some point, you must expect (and it will happen) to experience a long session of back-to-back losses. These will eliminate your incremental gains.
• With blackjack, the long-run return to player is 99.5% when perfect strategies are employed. That means you are guaranteed to lose 0.5% of all bets.