Basic Strategy in blackjack games encompasses various actions that players take to minimize loss of funds during playing sessions. Based on Basic Strategy, players know when to perform specific actions such as Hit, Stand, Double, Split, Take Insurance or Surrender. For example, when available, the Surrender option allows the player to Surrender 50% of the initial bet to the casino. A basic blackjack strategy relies on a massive dataset of some 400 million hands for optimal decision-making. But sometimes, it's necessary to deviate from Basic Strategy to maximize profits at the casino.
Let's consider a player's first two cards total 16. The dealer is showing a 7 up card. If by some stroke of luck, the player knew for sure that the next card to be dealt was 5, it would be most beneficial to the player to double down. That's a no-lose situation. The player can't lose even if the dealer manages to hit 21 since it's a Push. In all likelihood, the player wins the hand. In situations like this., the outcome is all but inevitable for the player. It is most beneficial for a smart casino player to have as much money riding on the outcome of that hand as possible. That's why you Double down – you get the most bang for your buck!
As far as blackjack strategy goes, deviation from standard accepted practice is difficult. Most strategy deviations in blackjack are dependent upon the deck in play. Put differently, players rely heavily on knowing which cards have been dealt and played to determine which cards remain in the deck. Fortunately, players are not required to memorize every card dealt from a shoe. While feasible with a single deck of cards, it becomes impossible with 6 or 8 decks of cards in play. That's 6×52 = 312 cards for 6 decks or 8 x 52 = 416 cards for 8 decks.
Forget about all the Hollywood blockbusters where actors make it look so easy to count cards. Movies like Rain Man, starring the inimitable Dustin Hoffman and his on-screen brother Tom Cruise, are fantastic imaginings of overactive minds. Instead, there is a much more classical approach to this practice, as good fortune would have it. To better understand this, we learn that every card that is dealt in blackjack either increases or decreases the player's advantage. When the edge is in the player's favour, players should place bigger bets. When the edge favours the house, players should place smaller bets.
The percentages are constantly changing in blackjack games. As soon as a card is dealt, it is removed from the deck for that round of play. This means the likelihood of that value card occurring diminishes. Since there are fewer cards in the deck, the odds of other cards coming up tend to increase. To keep track of the running count, a card counting system can be used. None of these systems is perfect. They all have pros and cons, which we will discuss in another article. The simplest counting cards system is also one of the most effective. It's known as the Hi-Lo count system; values are allocated to specific cards.
Let's take a look!
* Card values 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 assume a value of +1Card 7, 8, 9 assume a value of 0
* Cards like Ace, 10, Jack, Queen, and King have a value of -1
After every round of play, cards are added up, and a total is determined. This is known as the running count – running because it is ongoing. Next, the running count is divided by the number of decks still to be played. This is an estimate, but it's fairly easy to gauge.
You can look at the blackjack shoe (if cards are visible) or the discard tray to get a rough idea of how many decks still remain, a.k.a. deck penetration. The running count/decks remaining = True Count.
Therefore, the True Count is a normalization of the proportional ratio of high cards/low cards or low cards/high cards remaining in a deck. It represents an average. Let's assume that we have a Running Count of +24 and four decks of an eight deck shoe have been played. That means that the True Count is +24 divided by 4 = +6.
INTRODUCING ADJUSTED INDEX NUMBERS
The True Count indicates the deck composition. But what exactly does the actual number mean? A high + number is associated with lots of low-value cards already dealt in a game. That means that the probability of a high-value card being dealt is much higher. Conversely, a high - value means that many high-value cards such as Ace, 10, Jack, Queen, and King have been dealt. Viewed differently, there are plenty of low-value cards remaining!
There exists a True Count Value where basic blackjack strategy Deviation Play is feasible. Sadly, these types of situations are a rarity in blackjack games. It's not worth your time memorizing some 175+ index numbers just for this purpose. But, a subgroup of index plays is known as the ILLUSTRIOUS 18. As expected, the ILLUSTRIOUS 18 plays can consistently boost your profitability by 10%. It isn't a very large number, but it makes a huge difference in your profitability.
Your average annual winnings can go from $20,000 to $22,000 by using the ILLUSTRIOUS 18 index plays! Consider it a chunk of change that you can use towards a down payment on real estate, a fancy car, or an exotic island adventure. Below, you will find a chart representing the ILLUSTRIOUS 18 and the Hi-Lo card counting system.
THE ILLUSTRIOUS 18 WITH SURRENDER OPTION
- Players can benefit from these 18 advantageous deviations from the basic blackjack strategy. It is based on the Hi-Lo card counting system. These 18 plays represent approximately 80% of the gains that players can enjoy from playing the full set of indexes.
- Given that the Blackjack Surrender option is now available, some indexes have superseded the 1-18 index.
- Players should only double when two hands are played or when one hand is played and maxed out.
- Add $1 to every index for each stiff you get when splitting a pair of tens. For example, if you split a pair of tens against a 5, and then you get a 10-value card on one of the splits, the index will transition from 6 – 7 to determine to split the pair of tens on the new hand.
- The TC ≥ for each decision
The ILLUSTRIOUS 18 index numbers differ from one card counting system to the next. One such system is known as the USTON APC system, and it contains 4-levels where players also maintain a side count of ACES. This makes it much more precise than a Hi-Lo card counting system. The index numbers detailing how and when players should deviate from the basic blackjack strategy are also more precise.
The ILLUSTRIOUS 18 index numbers represent the most commonly-used strategy deviations for blackjack. Blackjack students with a clear focus on statistical analysis and probabilities are likely to become highly proficient in advantage play situations. This makes it possible to initiate more complicated blackjack deviations.
